Risk Evaluation Forum
Recent developments in physics suggest the possibility that a series of experiments, now scheduled to begin at the European research facility at CERN in 2009, will destroy the Earth. CERN has tested a new high-energy particle collider, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). It has been tested, but potentially dangerous experiments have been postponed until the spring of 2009 due to an accident affecting many magnets. These experiments are expected to produce particles scientists have not seen before. Two of these particles could be dangerous.

Black Holes
Several string theorists have published papers predicting (if their theories are true) that the LHC will produce mini black holes. In the worst case, a mini black hole could swallow Earth.

Strangelets
Strangelets, another potential collider product, might catalyze conversion of normal matter into more strangelets, turning Earth into a small ball of strangelets.

Safety Factors
In 2003, CERN published a paper asserting several safety factors. Black holes were supposed to dissipate via Hawking radiation. A collection of strangelets was supposed to be electrically positive on its surface, and therefore not attract other matter. An analogy between colliders and cosmic rays was supposed to demonstrate safety. However, new studies have put these safety factors in question. New physics papers question the existence of Hawking radiation. A recently published paper finds that a collection of strangelets can be negative on its surface. Colliders and cosmic rays are not analogous in important ways. Recently (in June 2008) CERN published a new safety study that asserts additional safety factors. This new study is a welcome development that reduces the subjective risk. The question is whether this is good enough. Two scientists have posted studies that posit models under which colliders are still dangerous, and we would like to see consultation of a wider range of experts. Even a small risk has a large negative expected value (probability times cost) when the lose at issue is Earth.

Lawsuits, Websites, and Publications
Two lawsuits against CERN have been filed, one in the European Court of Human Rights, another in US court in Hawaii against CERN and its US partners. The Hawaiian case has been dismissed on jurisdictional grounds, but plaintiffs plan to appeal. There are now many websites, blogs, and other publications addressing both sides of the issue. Many of these are accessible via a Google search. We list a few of them here.

What You Can Do
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