Risk Evaluation Forum
Recent developments in physics suggest the possibility that an experiment, scheduled to begin at the European research facility at CERN in 2008, will destroy the Earth. CERN is installing a new high-energy particle collider, the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). It is expected to produce particles scientists have not seen before. Two of these particles could be dangerous.

Black Holes
Several string theorists have published papers predicting (if their theories are true) that the LHC will produce mini black holes. In the worst case, a mini black hole could swallow Earth.

Strangelets
Strangelets, another potential collider product, might catalyze conversion of normal matter into more strangelets, turning Earth into a small ball of strangelets.

Safety Factors
In 2003, CERN published a paper asserting several safety factors. Black holes were supposed to dissipate via Hawking radiation. A collection of strangelets were supposed to be electrically positive on its surface, and therefore not attract other matter. However, new studies have put these safety factors in question. New physics papers question the existence of Hawking radiation. A recently published paper finds that a collection of strangelets can be negative on its surface. Recently (in June 2008) CERN published a new safety study that asserts additional safety factors. We are reviewing this new study. We have quibbles with their methodology and with some of their assumptions. Nevertheless, this is a welcome development that reduces the subjective risk. The question is whether this is good enough. Even a small risk has a large negative expected value (probability times cost) when the lose at issue is Earth.

What You Can Do
Readers can help by thinking about, discussing, and publicizing the issue. Contact us to help with our initiatives. We also encourage more physicists to work on the issue, and we encourage funding to help them to do so. (Physicists quickly see model limiters. Consider if candidate model limiters are reliable enough to protect something as valuable as Earth. If you think you have found a sufficiently reliable model limiter, please let us know.)


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