On March 30, 2010, the Large Hadron Collider achieved 7 TeV collisions. We congratulate CERN on an impressive step
for physics.
On March 30, 2010, the Large Hadron Collider achieved 7 TeV collisions. We congratulate CERN on an impressive step
for physics.
Unfortunately, it was also a sad case study for risk management. Collider advocates repeatedly offered close analogs
to “nothing can possibly go wrong” based on safety considerations, supposedly adequate to protect Earth, that turned out
to be wrong. Risk expert Mark Leggett estimated that CERN’s final safety study included only 18% of the elements of
risk management best practices.
CERN’s present accomplishment is a fait accompli. The bets are placed. We don’t know the outcome yet. If they made a non-radiating black hole CERN’s detectors will not see it, and it may eat us in a few years. But they have, somewhat recklessly, silenced most objections to operating at the 7 TeV level. If the LHC is dangerous at that level there is now nothing we can do about it.
Lest people worry unduly, we should offer our opinion that the risk is fairly low. The theories that enable disaster
appear to be a fairly small subset of the set of all possible theories. The size of that subset is impossible to calculate with
any precision, but it can be roughly and subjectively approximated. The space shuttle provides a good comparison. Most
shuttle launches are successful. It has blown up at the rate of about one in a hundred launches. We applaud the space
shuttle--but it should not be approved for commercial flights, with many passengers who did not volunteer for a dangerous
mission. Earth has 6.7 billion passengers.
CERN has not silenced all risk concerns. Upcoming 14 TeV collisions, lead ion collisions, and higher luminosity
are not demonstrated to be safe. Even 7 TeV collisions might have dangers that appear infrequently, so continued exposure
is still a risk.